After 35 years involved in social change campaigns, I don’t easily get excited about new ideas and campaign approaches. Not that we lack good campaigns mind you. With millions of people now out there pushing the boundaries and creatively exploring new ways to cut through our busy lives, there’s some really good stuff going on. Examples include the 1millionwomen campaign that I’ll be writing about in a future column and the amazing explosion of youth campaigning around the world.

Recently though one idea struck me as having the potential to be a real game changer, not to mention a damn clever idea. I’m writing to you about it because I want you to get involved and lend your support. If this campaign is successful it has the potential to shift the global climate debate in a really important way. Here’s why.

We are on the edge of a major shift in social attitudes that has the potential to radically reshape society and the global economy and despite the clear warning signals most people don’t see it coming. If we’re smart, we can all give this one a hand and in doing so make our personal lives happier and more interesting.

After active involvement in social change for 35 years, I think I’ve learnt a few things about how and when major shifts occur in social attitudes and values. Some sit under the surface for long periods before suddenly emerging. Predicting their timing requires us to observe the weak signals – the under the surface disturbances that are sending out vibrations but have not yet risen to the top of our busy information and ideas rich lives. When they do break the surface they can then sweep the world with extraordinary speed, now accelerated by technology and social networking.

One such weak signal I think is in on the verge of rising to the surface is the movement to rethink consumerism and consumption. While the issue has been around for decades, it’s no longer being discussed just as a philosophical or political ideal, but as a personal and everyday behaviour – as we shop. The level of debate and the number of groups, ideas and campaigns is now verging on critical mass and the so-called financial crisis may just tip it over the edge. Just to make sure, I think we should give it a leg up – so it shoots to the surface with greater impact.

So let’s talk about not-shopping. After all, it may be coming soon to a mall near you and the social and economic consequences can barely be overstated.

Now the world is slowly waking up to the climate threat, passionate debates are raging around the world on climate policy – cap and trade systems vs taxes, renewables vs coal with CCS and global agreements vs national action. From the US, to China, from South Africa to Australia, policy makers are examining their options and vested interests are furiously protecting their turf.

As recently as a year ago I would have been deeply engaged by these debates, deeply concerned that we got the right reduction target, the right policy mechanism, the right strategy in place. Now I find myself watching with an almost surreal detachment, observing with interest but rarely getting excited or disappointed as the debate swings this way or that.

Why?

This is all just shadow boxing, the training session before the game really begins. What happens this year and next, even at the Copenhagen conference is of marginal significance only.  What? That’s heresy! Isn’t the Copenhagen Climate conference the most critical global meeting in history, the one that will determine the future of civilisation? No, not really. Here’s why.

The thing that has really struck me this week as I’ve conducted a speaking tour of this fascinating country is how what one day seems as solid as a rock can suddenly turn to sand.

When I present on the Great Disruption around the world I describe the enormous change we will soon see in human society and behaviour. The question I am most often asked in response is along the lines of “I agree that we need to change and I accept that we will face a crisis if we don’t, but how can we possibly expect such a shift in human behaviour? Surely people won’t accept dramatic life style changes?”

Leave aside the fact that we will have no choice but to change and adapt, I will after my visit here be using this country as an example of what’s possible.

As the swine flu raced around the world and our minds last week, my thoughts went to economic risk and human resilience. And to chickens.

Pandemics and the threat of them, provide great insights into the world of the Great Disruption and some powerful lessons on what to expect and how to get ready. They can help us develop a roadmap for surviving and flourishing in uncertain times.

For those not familiar with my Great Disruption theory, the essence of our current situation is as follows. The world economy is operating up against its limits – limits of physical capacity and complexity. Like a tightly wound clock spring it has enormous power and potential but also the ability to suddenly and chaotically release. Into this unstable context, ecosystem decline is going to create a series of major shocks leading to a prolonged crisis but also an exciting period of global transformation.

The swine flu gives us great insights into this future. It is like a small grenade thrown in to test the unstable system. So what can we learn?

These are exciting times. While every week I have a conversation with someone who feels despair at the ecological and economic crisis unfolding around us, I have come to an acceptance of the inevitability of this crisis. So I focus instead on the uplifting responses emerging around the world as people build new approaches and gather support for them.

The so-called global financial crisis is in fact a blessing for humanity. While it is causing significant dislocation, it is bringing into sharp relief the idiocy of our consumer culture and the unsustainability of our economic model. It is a blessing because the sooner we face up to this, the less suffering there will ultimately be. A short sharp shock can help us to wake up.

Sometimes what seems so sensible in the short term can with hindsight be a source of great regret. This is how it will be seen if efforts by some in the business community to delay or water down the proposed pricing of carbon in Australia and the USA are successful.

It is bad for business because not only has “change come to America”, it is coming to the world. We live a globalised economy, as we’re being reminded brutally right now. So whether you like it or not, whether you accept the justification or not, we are going to shift the economy to a low carbon one. This means business leaders that are resisting the process (and remember this is not all or even most) are resisting change that is inevitable and healthy, even if difficult right now.

If we don’t understand the problem, then we won’t choose the right solution. The so-called “financial crisis” is not, repeat not, a problem of credit or sub-prime mortgages or complex financial products. They are all just symptoms of the problem.

Climate change likewise is not a problem but a symptom.

We have a system-design problem so we need to redesign the system. The good news is we can do this, but we’re going to have to do it really, really fast, so starting soon would be good.

The latest calls for delays to action on climate change in Europe and Australia shows just how weak our captains of industry and their political supporters are when it comes to their commitments to markets. It exposes their Stalinist, command and control tendencies and reminds us, despite their protestations otherwise, they really are more comfortable with oligopolies and private gatherings in the old club, than with the rough and tumble of a genuine market.

The transformation of the economy to a low carbon one requires change driven by new incentives. This should be music to the ears of anyone who believes, as I do, in the innovative power of people and markets when given the right incentives. Yes, change can be hard work and must be managed, but it sorts out those who are innovative and courageous, those prepared to have a go, from those lazy, over protected sections of the economy that need shaking up for the greater good.

This of course is what our captains of industry argue about markets, that if we expose our ideas, technology and management capacity to the rigours of an open process of capital allocation then the best will rise to the top. That is why many of them are so nervous and now scream for protection, because they fear that their day is coming to an end and more innovative technologies and companies will replace them. So they seek any excuse to slow down that process.